'Rather than deploying all their money at once, investors should invest gradually.' 'A staggered approach is the better strategy because volatility is likely to persist.'
India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries Ltd, successfully navigated a volatile energy market in the last quarter of FY26 by diversifying crude sourcing and demonstrating operational agility, particularly in response to geopolitical disruptions and cost fluctuations.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have raised their stakes in public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the three months ended September 30 - the first quarter after the government decontrolled petrol prices and announced plans to decontrol diesel rates as well.
State-owned refiners Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) have reported substantial losses for the first quarter of financial year 2026-27 (Q1FY27), primarily driven by a sharp increase in crude oil prices exacerbated by the ongoing West Asia crisis and suppressed marketing margins on petroleum products.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline in early trade, with the Sensex falling over 500 points and the Nifty over 150 points, as Brent crude oil prices surged past USD 100 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the West Asia. track sensex, Nifty on July 24.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant tumble in early trade, primarily driven by heavy selling in HDFC Bank following its quarterly earnings and a sharp spike in Brent crude oil prices due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Track Sensex, Nifty
Indian stock markets this week will be primarily influenced by a series of corporate Q1 earnings, the evolving geopolitical situation in West Asia, and fluctuations in crude oil prices, according to market analysts.
Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
India possesses two months of fuel stockpiles and faces no supply concerns despite global energy disruptions, according to Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. However, state-run fuel retailers are incurring losses of up to Rs 1 lakh crore in a single quarter due to elevated crude prices and unchanged retail fuel prices, raising questions about the sustainability of these losses.
FinMin recently stated that subsidy on petroleum products would not exceed Rs 80,000 crore, when exchange rate was around Rs 54.
India bought 1.87 million barrels of Russian oil per day in May so far, meeting approximately 40 per cent of its oil imports.
Sensex gains over 400 points while Nifty trades above 23,800 amid strong IT sector buying.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
Despite decades of efforts towards energy transition, oil will remain the critical energy source for all nations for some decades. We can hope for peace opening the Strait of Hormuz, but must prepare for war closing it, points out former foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai.
Domestic cooking gas (LPG) prices have increased by Rs 29 per cylinder, marking the second hike in three months due to rising global energy costs. This follows broader fuel price increases for petrol, diesel, and CNG, with state-owned retailers still incurring significant losses despite the revisions.
A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
'I don't see fear becoming a dominant factor for retail investors.'
Oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are set to significantly expand the sale of flex fuel (E85) across India, with plans to reach 5,000 outlets in major cities by the end of next year, according to Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. This move aims to boost ethanol demand, reduce crude oil imports, and cut carbon emissions, coinciding with the launch of India's first flex-fuel vehicles by Maruti Suzuki and Hero MotoCorp.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
Analysts predict that the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, and fluctuations in crude oil prices will be the primary drivers of investor sentiment in the Indian equity markets.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty continued their upward trend for a second consecutive day, with the Sensex gaining over 800 points, driven by strong performances from heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank, alongside positive cues from easing crude oil prices and robust IT sector earnings.
State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved the development of a 1.75 million tonnes (mt) strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) in Mangaluru, a project deemed of national importance, with plans for broad commercial utilisation.
Indian stock markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices this week, with analysts also highlighting the influence of the rupee-dollar trend, foreign investor activity, and upcoming inflation data.
Indian oil-marketing companies (OMCs) have incurred LPG underrecoveries of approximately Rs 22,000 crore between March and May 2026, as domestic cooking gas prices failed to keep pace with surging international rates exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, according to a Crisil report.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade, primarily driven by strong buying in IT stocks after Tech Mahindra reported a significant 28.4 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit for the June quarter.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw early gains, primarily driven by IT stocks, amidst expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve following softer inflation data. Global market trends and upcoming Q1 results are also influencing investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty on july 16.
Nayara Energy, India's largest private fuel retailer, has reduced petrol prices by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 3 per litre nationwide, marking the first such cut in over two years. This reduction follows easing tensions in West Asia and stabilised international crude oil prices, though public sector retailers have not yet followed suit.
The Indian corporate bond market witnessed a significant surge, with companies raising nearly Rs 16,000 crore in a single day, primarily led by state-owned financial institutions and NBFCs. This strong momentum, driven by improved borrowing conditions and investor confidence, is expected to persist.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant tumble in early trade, with the Sensex tanking nearly 700 points, driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, a fresh spike in crude oil prices, and persistent foreign fund outflows.
The Haryana government is taking strict action against black marketing of cooking gas cylinders, registering FIRs and seizing hundreds of cylinders to ensure adequate supply for citizens.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged in early trade, with the Sensex jumping nearly 700 points, primarily driven by strong buying in IT stocks following TCS's positive June-quarter results and optimistic demand outlook. Track Sensex, Nifty on July 10, 2026.
The Indian government has restricted industrial, commercial, and institutional users from purchasing petrol and diesel from retail petrol pumps, directing them to bulk sale points instead. This move, which can last up to 90 days, aims to address abnormal demand growth and prevent localised shortages caused by a significant price difference between retail and bulk fuel prices.
Maruti Suzuki, India's leading passenger vehicle manufacturer, is experiencing robust growth in the June quarter, driven by a recovery in the entry-level segment, easing supply constraints, and significant market share gains. Despite potential headwinds from El Nio, analysts remain optimistic about the company's future performance.
Indian stock markets are poised for volatility this week, driven primarily by the outcomes of five state assembly elections, ongoing high crude oil prices amid West Asia tensions, and the release of Q4 corporate earnings, according to market analysts.
Tax collection so far has been encouraging, with net direct tax receipts reaching Rs 5.21 trillion by June 17, nearly a 15 per cent increase compared to the same period last year.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
